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Robert Gottliebsen: Gillard has six months to go to the polls

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Gillard has six months to go to the polls

Published  24 Oct 2012

My advice to Julia Gillard is to call an election within the next six months. Last night on markets there were some scary developments for Wayne Swan’s mini budget, while the Morgan Poll has the ALP a nose in front of the Coalition which has slumped. 

Other pollsters have picked up the same trend but have not gone as far as Morgan.

In other words, after being written off Gillard is on a roll and that roll might continue in coming months as interest rates fall.

But further ahead there are some global and local nasties. Last night traders began shorting copper because they believe that China is not going to stimulate further and that Stephen Koukoulas called it correctly when he suggested that the latest China growth figures overstate the real position – something revealed in depressed electricity consumption (Can we trust the Chinese growth figures?October 19).

If the shorters are right then Treasury’s optimistic China and commodity scenarios are wrong. 

Treasury based their forward tax estimates on the assumption of a Chinese recovery of some substance. If that does not happen then tax revenues in a year’s time when the election is due will be way down and Gillard will go to the polls with no surplus and in a real mess. 

If this scenario proves right, in 12 months Australian voters will understand the implications and blame Gillard.

Back home it was a co-incidence but the day after the Swan mini- budget, AGL announced it was suspending power investment in South Australia and was likely to do the same thing in Queensland.

Now that AGL has broken the ice, expect energy investment cut-backs across the nation. The Government’s carbon tax energy policy is a disaster. It has never been properly thought out and longer term Australia will pay a big price for under investment. In 12 months, voters are also likely understand the full extent of the disaster. At this stage they are ignorant.

Then add the effect of the mini budget. It seems inconsequential to accelerate tax payments but initially it takes $5.5 billion out of large corporations and over time, as the tax spreads to middle ranking enterprises, will take out $8.5 billion.

Many companies will have to borrow that money and, while interest rates are lower, medium and smaller sized business’s banks have not passed on rate cuts to the same extent as mortgages.

In 12 months the tax raid on small and medium business plus other targets will be well under way. And because Swan it putting $390 million behind the tax attack it will affect the trading of small and medium businesses including independent contactors (Six ways the taxman cometh, October 23).

At the last election Tony Abbott did not understand small business. Had he understood he would have won the election. This time around he does understand small business and, if he plays the game correctly, a widespread tax raid could send his support from Australia’s largest employer group soaring. 

In a year’s time, in the absence of a China rebound, we will see less employment and less capital investment. And this is being clearly reflected in the Business Spectator CEO Pulse survey (Worry across the boards, October 23).

Add this to the massive cancellation of new mining projects and the picture is not pretty.

Of course our stock market has been firming because of global liquidity and our lower interest rates but, as we will see today, events overseas are starting to reverse that trend.

The time to go to the polls is when the government nasties are not apparent and you can flush out from Tony Abbott his new federalist policies, which lowers duplication with the states but is tough on public servant jobs. In those circumstances and it will be a close fight and Gillard has a real chance of winning.

Six months ago, Julia Gillard was set to be voted out by huge majority. She can gamble that her better polling trend will keep going, but in my view that is very dangerous and right now the opposition is not ready, and the nasties have not yet come to the surface. 

Of course, the John Howard philosophy says that elections are hard to win so take advantage of every month the electorate gives you. But John never had the paper thin majority of Julia Gillard.
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  • doyla66
    doyla66 Wednesday, 24 October 2012

    Elections Don't Really Matter Anyway

    Elections give the sheeple an opportunity every so many years to decide who will be the servants of the banksters for the next few years and they (the sheeple) will be royally screwed by whichever ever gang of profligate puppet pollies get the nod.
    In Anerica it is either the Reubmocratic or the Demopublican Party, both of which are controlled by the baksters. In New Zealand we have the NatLabACTUnitedFutureGreenMaoriManaNewZealandFirstConservative Party. The only saving grace is that we have MMP which enables the smaller parties, not that they are any good, to rein the excesses of the big parties.
    I get so sick and tired of the pollies, the media, the unions, Uncle Tom Cobley and all whining about the economy, job losses etc etc and not ONE of them puts the blame where it belongs. DEBT, the SCAM BANKING SYSTEM the BANKSTERS and their complicit, gutless puppet pollies are to blame. Yes, I am having a rant, I do periodically, have to , to get it off my chest. A "LOAN" vice crting in the wilderness.
    I tell you, if my "Plan B" works, I'm out here, I intend to go and find a blunt peak on which to sit and meditate until the end comes, UNLESS, of course, the Mayan calendar is right which would mean I probably won't have time to find a suitably blunt peak. AH WELL, such is life.

  • doyla66
    doyla66 Wednesday, 24 October 2012

    Geoff Waterhouse - say it like it is!

    We can only live in hope that the sheeple wake up and realise that the two party system is a con-job designed to provide the illusion that the sheeple have a choice (some choice! 2 parties... whoop whoop!) in who will 'represent' them and, come to realise that both parties are completely owned and controlled by the global banks and administered by the UNITED NATIONS (which is itself founded, funded and controlled by the global banks). You only have to investigate the Goldman Sachs political connections around the world which run from the Whitehouse to the leader of Italy, the leader of Greece and our own Malcolm Turncoat just to name a few, to see that this is the reality. Political parties do NOT represent the electorate, they represent the interests of global banks and global corporations which are clients of the banks.

    I doubt that day of awakening is coming any time soon though, in fact, I perceive the general public just being dumbed down further and further by the media and the education system. It's not a pretty picture.

    Good on you, Geoff, for saying what people need to be told.

  • doyla66
    doyla66 Wednesday, 24 October 2012

    Oh, and Gottliebsen is a muppet in my estimation. Only tells as much as his editors allow him to say to secure his own pay cheque. Not interested in exposing the truth at all.

    The boys at Port Philip Publishing who produce 'The Daily Reckoning' - a free daily e-newsletter - have been saying these things for positively months. There are many other such credible sources if people wish to seek them out.

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