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Foreclosures to dramatically increase in coming months - maybe...

Posted by on in Toxic Mortgage Loans
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An organisation named Digital Finance Analytics (DFA) has been quoted by many finance and news sites stating up to a fifth of first home owners risk losing their properties in the next few months.  This organisation cannot be sourced online - a quote is from Martin North "the Director" of the company. 


"Its Australian Mortgage Stress Analysis of 26,000 households claims 16% currently fall into the ‘severe mortgage stress’ category, which is defined as falling behind in payments, or receiving threats of foreclosure."


Low-to mid-income households were among the hardest hit. 



The number of suburban homes in this demographic will rise by 4,000 before June 30 2013, according to the report.



Speaking to Australian Broker Online, Paramatta broker Kim Narayan, who works in one of the worst-hit regions for mortgage stress and arrears, confirmed many locals were moving further west as it had become too expensive.

“A lot of people struggle with affordability here, and since valuation has gone down it’s made it even harder,” she said.

The report hinted that a significant proportion of those facing severe stress were recipients of low doc loans, pre-2008.

"Most people don't realise that the average loan size is twice as big as it was in 2005 so many people are still mortgaged to the hilt,'' DFA director Martin North said.

Both Ms Narayan and broker Ben Eick of Nelson Bay, another badly-hit region, agreed 100% loans or low-doc loans could be a factor.


 “We had a bit of a pre-GFC boom in 2005 and 2006, and people thought ‘this is good value for money and these places will keep appreciating’ and of course what they’ve done since then is depreciate. And that’s where they’ve come unstuck,” said Mr Eick.

“I think the reason arrears are generally high here is due to people wanting to take advantage of 100% lends a couple of years ago, and the high first home owner grant concessions at the time,” agreed Narayan.

Eick offered a stark warning for brokers in the face of increased arrears and foreclosures.

“Obviously you don’t get paid trail if a mortgage is in arrears, which is a big problem for brokers,” he said.

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  • doyla66
    doyla66 Saturday, 29 September 2012

    I'd like to know who DFA and Martin North are. How did he make his predictions?
    For starters it is unusual for anything of that size to happen quickly in Australia ....unless the situation is manipulated or "pushed". There are many who would have the motive for doing this...
    It's possible that Martin North is the same one who was with Fujitsu Consulting and who has been writing for years about the problems with our housing/mortgage situation.
    Judging by the apparently ready acceptance of his media release by multiple publications and websites they seem to know who he is and he has a lot of clout and cred or he paid for the widespread media releases.
    It looks like he doesn't need a website - everyone else is willing to let him use their sites and SEO to get his message out there.

  • doyla66
    doyla66 Saturday, 29 September 2012

    Martin North...hmmmm

    You could be right Lisa - here he is quoted a number of times and has his own link:
    So either he is someone dodgy who does press releases to many sites who just quote him, or he has influence in the broker market.
    Its interesting that has picked it up and fluffed it out.

  • doyla66
    doyla66 Saturday, 29 September 2012

    I found this ...
    "Martin North leads Fujitsu's consulting division in Australia and New Zealand where he specialises in financial services, in particular credit cards and the mortgage industry. He has completed over 50 assignments centred on customer segmentation, including significant work in the mortgage industry in Australia and overseas, ranging from lenders, through brokers, to platform providers. He collaborates with JPMorgan on the Mortgage Industry report, a bi-annual publication which has been widely cited in the industry."
    Also this is interesting reading - 2007 but still relevant.
    I've been amazed to discover how out of touch Banks are with the basics of business, accounting and real customer service rules. Maybe they're taught something different these days - the result is very superficial CS gloss. Too many sales people doing the wrong jobs and in the wrong way.
    I wonder what the research team would find out if they surveyed people now ...

  • doyla66
    doyla66 Tuesday, 16 October 2012

    The end of affordable housing

    This story has now appeared on ABC TV 7:30 report, 16/10/2012

    "Despite a recent drop in interest rates, a new study reveals that some 40 per cent of Australians who bought homes just after the Global Financial Crisis are facing mortgage stress.
    MARTIN NORTH: Of the 400,000 first-time buyers who entered the market in 2008 and 2009, 40 per cent of those are now in some degree of difficulty and about half of the 40 per cent are in now the more severe end of mortgage stress may have to refinance, perhaps have to sell the property. ... I'm not talking here about low doc loans or I'm not talking about flawed lending policies or anything like that. I'm talking about standard meat-and-potato loans made to first-time buyers who ticked all the boxes in terms of affordability and those other factors at the time.

    Anyone who has read "The end of suburbia" knows what is happening, peak oil.

    Mortgage debt is around 90% of GDP

    Alan Kohler has a graph on re-financing on his website

    Also, Australian cities have grown beyond their economic limits. From my website:

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