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BFCSA: RBA needs to address Australian Property Bubble UBS

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RBA needs to address Australia's property bubble: UBS

The Economy

September 16, 2014

Bianca Hartge-Hazelman

UBS global chief economist Larry Hatheway has warned that unless the Australian dollar falls below US85c in the near future, the Reserve Bank may have little choice but to use other tools besides changing rates to ward off bubble-like conditions in the property market.

Speaking as he was wrapping up a tour of Australia, Mr Hatheway observed that just as Australia was beginning to wean itself off its dependence in the mining goods sector, it must now rebalance its economy towards consumption, as well as investment in other areas of exports.  "That's going to require, in my view, a weaker exchange rate. Getting from here to there though will be difficult. The Reserve Bank could facilitate that but cutting interest rates might exacerbate some of the bubbly-like conditions in the Australian housing market."

The Australian dollar dipped below US90c on Monday for the first time since early March, before bouncing back.   The move has raised hopes of further relief being provided to struggling sectors hurt by the high dollar and is likely to take some of the pressure off the RBA to cut rates further to help lower the currency and achieve a greater balance in economic growth.

Mr Hatheway added that macro prudential tools, which may include the setting of limits on loans that banks can issue with small deposits as used by New Zealand's central bank, should be considered by the RBA.  "The Reserve Bank has never really been a big fan of macro prudential tools, however if they're unable to see some depreciation of the currency, which is necessary for the rebalancing of the Australian dollar, and also continue to see house prices moving higher, they may have little choice but to reconsider."

The housing and construction markets have been among the main beneficiaries of the RBA's historically low cash rate at 2.5 per cent with house prices surging higher in many populated areas..........


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